Modeling the Impacts of Sub-seasonal Environmental Variability on Devils Hole | P17AS00503

Opportunity Information: Apply for P17AS00503

This government grant opportunity, titled "Modeling the Impacts of Sub-seasonal Environmental Variability on Devils Hole" (Funding Opportunity Number P17AS00503), is focused on improving understanding of how short-term environmental fluctuations influence water conditions and habitat suitability at Devils Hole. The core idea is to take existing observations and models for Devils Hole and refine them so they can better represent real-world, day-to-day variability in both water levels and meteorological drivers, then use that improved modeling framework to assess biological implications tied to temperature-dependent egg hatching thresholds.

The proposed work starts with a detailed analysis of the Devils Hole water level record. The project will extract periodic signals associated with earth tides and barometric pressure, which are known to create detectable, repeating patterns in water level measurements. Separating and characterizing these signals helps clarify how much of the observed water level variation is driven by predictable geophysical forcing versus other sources of variability. This step essentially cleans and decomposes the water-level time series so it can be used more effectively in modeling and scenario analysis.

After addressing the water level record, the study shifts to local meteorological data. The goal is to examine historical records and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for daily maximum and minimum air temperature, along with other key climate drivers that can influence the thermal and physical environment at Devils Hole. These additional drivers explicitly include wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation. Building PDFs for these variables means the project is not only summarizing averages or trends; it is describing the full statistical distribution of conditions that occur, including typical values and the likelihood of more extreme events. This is important because biological thresholds and short-term habitat stress can be triggered by relatively brief periods of unfavorable conditions rather than long-term averages.

Those probability density functions are then used to create a stochastic (randomly generated but statistically consistent) set of meteorological drivers. In practice, this means the project will simulate many plausible sequences of daily weather conditions that resemble the observed climate variability. These synthetic meteorological time series are designed to capture sub-seasonal variability, including swings over days to weeks, and provide a robust set of possible forcing inputs rather than relying on a single historical year or a limited set of scenarios.

Next, the project combines the stochastic meteorological drivers with the Devils Hole water level data to form the inputs needed for modeling. A key deliverable is a revision of the existing hydrodynamic model of Devils Hole so that water levels can vary, rather than being held constant. Allowing water levels to fluctuate is critical because water depth and related hydrodynamic behavior can strongly influence temperature dynamics, mixing patterns, and the availability of suitable microhabitats. Updating the model in this way makes it better suited for analyzing how water level scenarios interact with short-term weather variability to shape habitat conditions.

Finally, the revised hydrodynamic model will be used to evaluate habitat suitability under different water level scenarios, using a biologically relevant metric tied to egg hatching temperature thresholds. Specifically, the study will assess suitability based on the number of four-day periods during which temperature thresholds for egg hatching are not exceeded. This frames habitat quality in terms of whether the system stays within acceptable thermal limits for long enough windows to support successful hatching, and it allows the model outputs to be translated into an actionable ecological indicator rather than only physical variables like temperature or water level.

Administratively, this opportunity is issued by the Department of the Interior, National Park Service, under the Natural Resources funding activity category (CFDA 15.945). The funding instrument is a cooperative agreement, and eligible applicants are limited to public and state-controlled institutions of higher education. The listed award ceiling is $66,243, with one expected award. Importantly, the posting is described as a Notice of Intent only: the task is being awarded under an existing cooperative agreement (P16AC01260) that was previously competed, and no new applications are being accepted. The opportunity was created on July 17, 2017, and it functions primarily as a public notice describing the scope of work to be carried out under that pre-existing agreement.

• The Department of the Interior, National Park Service in the natural resources sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Modeling the Impacts of Sub-seasonal Environmental Variability on Devils Hole" and is now available to receive applicants.
• Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 15.945.
• This funding opportunity was created on Jul 17, 2017.
• Applicants must submit their applications by This is a Notice of Intent only. This Task Agreement is being awarded under Cooperative Agreement P16AC01260 which was already awarded under a competitive process. No applications are being accepted at this time.. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
• Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $66,243.00 in funding.
• The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 1 candidate(s).
• Eligible applicants include: Public and State controlled institutions of higher education.

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